Despite facing tariff disruptions and inflationary pressures in the global economy in 2025, the mobile phone market has demonstrated resilience. According to IDC...Latest Market ReportThe global mobile phone industry is expected to grow by 1.9% year-on-year in 2025. Among them, the sales of "high-end mobile phones" priced above $800 remained strong. Apple and Samsung together accounted for 39% of global mobile phone sales, up from 37% in 2024.
However, this growth momentum is unlikely to continue into 2026. IDC warns that an unprecedented memory (RAM) shortage is brewing, which will be the biggest challenge facing the mobile phone industry this year.
2026 Outlook: Unprecedented Supply Chain Disruptions
Ryan Reith, Vice President of Global Client Devices at IDC, stated bluntly, "While 2025 is a positive year, the industry now faces a very different outlook." He pointed out that the memory shortage is widely regarded as an "unprecedented supply chain disruption," which will lead to a contraction in the mobile phone market in 2026, and the duration of the shortage will determine the extent of the market decline.
In fact, this wave of memory shortages has already affected the home PC market, and now it's the mobile phone industry's turn to feel the pressure, which means that mobile phone prices may become more expensive this year.
Price increases are inevitable, but reduced specifications pose a hidden concern.
How will major mobile phone manufacturers respond to soaring component costs?
According to an IDC report, tech companies like Apple and Samsung, with their strong bargaining power in the supply chain, will have relatively stable performance, but for ordinary consumers, price increases for mobile phones are probably inevitable.
Avi Greengart, president and chief analyst at research firm Techsponential, predicts that manufacturers may resort to "indirect price increases" or "specification adjustments" to avoid scaring away consumers with price hikes, potentially making the following changes:
• Reduced storage space:The base model may have less storage space, forcing users who need more storage to buy the more expensive version.
• Use the old specifications:To save costs, manufacturers may choose to use last year's screen panel technology instead of adopting this year's latest panel specifications.
Avi Greengart points out that for ultra-high-end products such as foldable phones priced as high as $2000, manufacturers can more easily raise prices or absorb the costs themselves; however, in the entry-level and mid-range mobile phone market where profits are thin, price increases will be an unavoidable outcome.
The real test will be at MWC 2026.
So far, there haven't been any significant price increases for newly released smartphones. With CES 2026 concluded, industry attention is focused on MWC 2026 in late February. The pricing strategies of major manufacturers at that time will be a key indicator of how much smartphones will "become more expensive" in 2026.
