Elon Musk and SpaceX's ultimate goal has always been..."To make humanity a multiplanetary species"Mars has always been his dream. But according to reports, Elon Musk seems to have finally succumbed to the laws of physics and logistical realities.
Elon Musk revealed on the X page today (February 10th) that SpaceX's short-term priority has shifted from Mars colonization plans to establishing a "self-growing city" on the moon. The reason is simple: getting to the moon is faster, and logistical resupply is relatively easier.
For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years.
The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to…
- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 8, 2026
A lunar base could be built within 10 years, while Mars would take 20 years.
According to Elon Musk's latest statement, SpaceX assesses that the goal of completing the construction of a base on the moon may be achieved in less than 10 years; in contrast, if it wants to directly challenge the colonization of Mars, considering the harsh environment and the difficulty of resupply, it will take at least more than 20 years.
This shift in development goals signifies a major change in SpaceX's strategy. Elon Musk pointed out that completing the proof of concept on the moon first is logistically more reasonable, mainly due to the distance between the moon and Earth, and the frequency of launch windows.
Compared to the Hohmann Transfer Orbit window, which is only available every 26 months, the journey to the Moon can be undertaken almost anytime, making it crucial for the frequent transport of supplies needed to establish an initial base.
He once called the moon a "distraction," but now he admits it's surprisingly appealing.
Interestingly, this isn't the first time Elon Musk has expressed his views on the moon, but his stance has taken a complete 180-degree turn. Back in early last year, Musk confidently declared that SpaceX would "go straight to Mars," even criticizing the lunar program as merely a "distraction."
Space analyst Peter Hague pointed out at the time that the lunar regolith contains about 45% oxygen, which is crucial for rocket fuel and human survival. With NASA's successful demonstration in 2023 that oxygen can be extracted from lunar soil, meaning future space missions could save significant payload costs (by eliminating the need to transport liquid oxygen from Earth), Elon Musk clearly eventually agreed with this view.
Artemis II launched this March, Mars mission delayed until 2031.
As for the ever-changing "Musk timeline":
• Manned mission to Mars:Musk now predicts that it may be 2031.
• Parallel development:He added that the Mars program will begin in 5 to 6 years, and will run "in parallel" with the lunar program, but the initial focus will definitely be on the moon.
Don't forget that SpaceX is also a key contractor for NASA's Artemis program. The Artemis II mission is scheduled to launch this March, with astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft to orbit the moon and return to Earth, paving the way for a return to the lunar surface in 2028.
