As the global semiconductor market enters a new growth cycle, SEMI, the international semiconductor industry association, stated at a press conference before SEMICON Taiwan 2025 that the market will exhibit unusual seasonality in 2025. While the short-term outlook for the industry will be mixed due to trade policy uncertainty, supply chain adjustments, and a fluctuating tariff environment, the long-term growth momentum remains clear.
AI and advanced technologies drive growth
Mid-term industry growth will be primarily driven by investments in AI data centers, while edge AI is expected to offer longer-term growth potential in the latter half of this generation. Furthermore, trends such as high-performance computing (HPC), memory technology transitions, and advanced packaging (such as GAA, HBM, 3D stacking, and chiplet architectures) will continue to drive multi-year investments in the equipment and materials markets.
Reshaping the global landscape
Over the next decade, global semiconductor revenue is expected to exceed $1 trillion, and the value chain will enter a phase of reshaping. The previous model, centered on a single, US-dominated industry, is gradually shifting to a complex, complementary relationship where multiple countries leverage their strengths. However, geopolitical friction and the conflicts of interest arising from AI technology are making this relationship of mutual benefit and cooperation even more complex and irreversible. The short-term challenge lies in meeting the demands of advanced manufacturing processes. In the medium and long term, companies worldwide will need to select strategic directions and strengthen system R&D and production capacity amidst uncertainty.
Taiwan's Role and Challenges
Taiwan is renowned for its comprehensive semiconductor ecosystem, boasting leading advantages across everything from wafer foundry and packaging and testing to supply chain support. However, competition will intensify over the next decade, prompting Taiwan to carefully focus on areas with international competitiveness. Taiwan must demonstrate its commitment to continuously advancing its technology through initiatives such as the CoWoS (Coupling of WoS) and silicon photonics platforms promoted by SEMI, as well as future energy management platforms.
However, Taiwan's technology industry still faces multiple challenges, as follows:
• Industrial innovation and upgrading:It is unable to dominate global system specifications, and forward-looking research and development still needs breakthroughs.
• Startups and funding:There is a lack of incentives to form a new entrepreneurial ecosystem, and subsidy policies are not strong enough.
• Technology development:Lack of control over EDA tools, low utilization of advanced processes, and insufficient computing resources.
• Talent cultivation:The gap between industry and academia in advanced processes, outdated equipment, and a lack of potential overseas talent are all issues that need to be addressed.
Crystal Taiwan: Strengthening innovation and talent development
In the face of challenges, the Taiwanese government launched the "Crystal Taiwan" plan, which is promoted through cross-departmental cooperation and focuses on chip design, process innovation and AI application integration, with the goal of enabling Taiwan to continue to maintain its leading position in global competition.
This strategy encompasses four major areas, including integrating AI and chip technology to drive cross-industry innovation, strengthening the nurturing environment to attract and retain the world's top technical talent, accelerating heterogeneous integration to drive breakthroughs in advanced technologies, and leveraging Silicon Island's advantages to attract international venture capital and expand innovation potential.
A key opportunity amidst challenges
From global shifts to AI-driven technological breakthroughs, the semiconductor industry will face both challenges and opportunities over the next decade. For Taiwan, how to move from "manufacturing leadership" to "standard dominance" and "technological innovation" will be crucial to maintaining its voice.
Through policy support, industry focus, and international cooperation, Taiwan must not only maintain its competitive advantage but also establish an indispensable strategic position in the reshaping of the global semiconductor value chain.
