The memory market has recently experienced an unexpected turn of events. While major manufacturers were initially actively shifting production capacity to DDR5, LPDDR5, and HBM high-bandwidth memory, gradually reducing existing DDR4 memory supply, market demand for DDR4 memory remained strong, sparking a stockpiling frenzy. This led to a shortage of DDR4 memory and a price increase that surpassed DDR5 memory, creating a rare "price inversion" phenomenon seen in recent years. This also prompted some manufacturers to re-evaluate their production suspension plans, opting to extend DDR4 memory production to capitalize on short-term market opportunities.
According to market research firm TrendForce, Samsung and SK Hynix originally planned to phase out DDR2025 memory production between late 2026 and early 4. However, considering strong demand and price performance, both companies have decided to continue DDR4 memory production until 2026. SK Hynix has officially notified customers that its Wuxi, China, fab will increase DDR4 memory production to meet market demand.
Micron, however, is sticking with its original plan and will no longer produce DDR4 memory. In a June interview, Micron Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana stated that Micron's DDR6 and LPDDR4 products have reached the End of Life (EOL) stage, with final shipments expected within the next two to three months, with no further production extensions.
Market Analysis: Price inversion and supply anxiety drive short-term demand
Analysts point out that the price inversion between DDR4 and DDR5 memory is unlikely to persist in the short term. A similar situation occurred during the transition from DDR2 to DDR3 memory, typically lasting about four months. Due to Samsung's large market share in the DDR4 memory market, price increases are a major source of short-term profit for the company. SK Hynix, however, believes the recent price surge is primarily driven by supply concerns, and that a short-term surge in demand could also benefit from increased production.
From an industry perspective, while DDR5 memory is the long-term development direction, the market lifespan of DDR4 memory has been extended due to strong demand. This reflects that different application scenarios and cost considerations still make DDR4 memory valuable, especially in enterprise servers, educational computers, and low-cost PCs, where there is still a huge market demand.
Conclusion: DDR4 production delay is a positive for the market, but future market trends still require careful observation.
Samsung and SK Hynix's announcement to extend DDR4 memory production not only reflects continued demand for older-generation memory, but also highlights short-term price and supply dynamics. However, with the gradual increase in DDR5 memory production capacity and the implementation of Micron's production suspension plan, the market's price inversion and tight supply-demand situation will gradually ease. For end users and PC assemblers, this remains a critical period to monitor DDR4 memory price trends and seize purchasing opportunities.
